The Grade 1, $1 million California Crown Stakes Presented by SirDavis American Whisky, formerly the Awesome Again Stakes, is a “Win and You’re In” prep for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Nov. 2 at Del Mar. Seven horses were entered, with Senor Buscador the top horse among the group in career earnings at more than $12.7 million, much of it earned when victorious in the $20 million Saudi Cup in February.
National Treasure has banked more than $5.3 million, some when fourth behind Senor Buscador in the Saudi Cup and quite a bit when winning the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented by Baccarat in January of this year. Muth has won three races in a row, including the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby this past spring and, most recently, the Shared Belief Stakes. Newgate won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap Presented by Yaamava’ Resort & Casino in March and returns from nearly six months off following a ninth-place effort in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline. Subsanador missed by a head in the Santa Anita Handicap and most recently won the Grade 3 Philip H. Iselin Stakes. Indispensable finished second in the Shared Belief behind Muth and will try to improve in the California Crown. Katonah won the Pleasanton Mile Stakes in 2023 and was second in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap in July before a seventh-of-eight finish in the Grade 1 FanDuel Racing Pacific Classic Stakes in his most recent race.
Main win contenders:
Subsanador won seven of 12 races in his native Argentina in 2022 and 2023, including his only try at the 1 1/8-mile distance of the California Crown. In his U.S. debut last December, Subsanador was favored in the Grade 2 San Antonio Stakes off that strong body of work in South America but only managed a fourth-place finish. Rested for two months, he returned in the Santa Anita Handicap in March and, at odds of 22.30-1, nearly posted the upset, coming up a head short to Newgate, who had run five weeks earlier. Following that race, Subsanador moved to the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella, who has won this race (under different names) four times. Subsanador ran poorly when fourth in Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes in May in his first start for Mandella, but he was an entirely new horse 2 ½ months later in the Philip H. Iselin Stakes on Aug. 17. In that race, Subsanador was relaxed in fourth, about 3 ½ lengths off the pacesetters through the opening half-mile, then with just a slight cue from Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, the horse whooshed by three horses to be in front before being “ridden out” to victory. That effort earned Subsanador a field-high 124 Equibase Speed Figure, which is by far the best winning figure of any horse in this year’s California Crown field. Considering this will be his second start following 2 ½ months off, Smith rides him back, and he put in a very strong seven-furlong workout coming into the race, Subsanador appears to be the one to beat in this race.
Muth has never finished farther back than second in seven races. He won five of those, including three of four starts around two turns. Muth has the same 1-for-1 record at this 1 1/8-mile trip as Subsanador, having won the Arkansas Derby this past March, earning a career-best 115 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. Rested for five months following that win and most likely with this race in mind, Muth won the Shared Belief Stakes at a mile on Sept. 1. Although the figure earned was just a 108, we can expect a big improvement in this colt’s second start off the extended layoff and that makes him a strong contender in this field.
Senor Buscador has won one of the five times he’s run this distance, but that win was huge as it came in the Saudi Cup Stakes in February, where he earned the bulk of the $20 million purse. Last year, Senor Buscador won the San Diego Handicap in July with a 110 speed figure then earned a similar 111 figure when third in this race (when named the Awesome Again Stakes). He began his 2024 campaign with an even better effort when closing from 11th of 12 to miss by a neck to National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup (earning a 113 figure), then won the Saudi Cup one month later. Returning off a five-month layoff on Aug. 24 in the seven-furlong Pat O’Brien Stakes, Senor Buscador rallied from last of eight to be fourth at the end, but he was never a sprinter and that was obviously a prep for a longer race like this one. Certainly, if the early pace is contested and faster than average, Senor Buscador might be seen bounding down the center of the track to cross the finish line in time.
Trainer Bob Baffert, who has won this race eight times, saddles Muth but also conditions National Treasure and Newgate, both of whom I think are a cut below the top three contenders. National Treasure won the Pegasus World Cup in January at this distance with a 111 speed figure, and he earned a 114 Equibase Speed Figure when second by a nose in the Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last fall. Since then, National Treasure earned a 110 figure winning the Hill ‘n’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap (Met Mile) in June, then ran the worst he’s run in a long time when sixth as the odds-on favorite in the Whitney Stakes last month at the distance of the California Crown. At this level and distance, I feel National Treasure may have his work cut out for him. Similarly, Newgate earned a 111 Equibase Speed Figure winning the Santa Anita Handicap in March but other than that, his best effort in a two-turn race earned a 105 figure. He beat Subsanador in the Santa Anita Handicap, but Subsanador has improved markedly since then and Newgate returns from nearly six months off, which is a big concern at this level and distance.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure this year): Indispensable (105) and Katonah (107).
Win contenders in probability order:
