There’s a lot more riding on the outcome of Saturday’s $200,000, Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont at the Big A than the relatively modest purse implies. As part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series, the 1 1/16-mile turf race awards a “Win and You’re In” berth to the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Nov. 1 at Del Mar.
There’s a good chance that prize will be claimed by #4 Zulu Kingdom (8-5), the morning-line favorite and most accomplished horse among the eight entrants. The undefeated colt is the only proven stakes winner in the Pilgrim field and should be tough to beat as a result.
Zulu Kingdom started his career in France under the care of acclaimed trainer Andre Fabre. He debuted on June 4 in maiden race restricted to first-time starters. The result? A 3 1/2-length victory on soft turf at Saint-Cloud.
Subsequently transferred to the care of Chad Brown in the United States, Zulu Kingdom handled the switch to firm turf just fine in the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes racing 1 1/16 miles Aug. 29 at Saratoga. After saving ground a few lengths behind the leaders, Zulu Kingdom rallied along the inside to win by a neck in the quick time of 1:41.79, earning an 89 Brisnet Speed rating.
That number towers over the Pilgrim field. None of Zulu Kingdom’s seven rivals have earned a number higher than 79. If Zulu Kingdom repeats his With Anticipation effort at Belmont at the Big A — and there’s no clear reason to think he won’t — he can keep his unbeaten record intact and secure a second graded stakes win.
Horseplayers planning to bet the Pilgrim are advised to wager accordingly. If you want to keep things simple, there’s nothing wrong with a win bet on Zulu Kingdom, of course it won’t pay a lot. If you want to aim for a bigger payoff, betting Zulu Kingdom on top of exotic wagers like the exacta (select the top two finishers in order) and the trifecta (select the top three finishers in order) is the way to go.
Fortunately, sorting out the key contenders for second and third place doesn’t appear overly complicated. We’ll start with Zulu Kingdom’s Brown-trained stablemate #8 Early Adopter (6-1). The beautifully bred son of Lope de Vega rallied strongly from behind a modest pace to win his debut racing 1 1/16 miles on the Saratoga turf last month. He gained 2 1/2 lengths through the final eighth of a mile alone and should be rallying strongly down the Pilgrim homestretch.
The same goes for #5 Concord Green (4-1). He encountered a modest pace over a rain-dampened “good” turf course when debuting at 1 1/16 miles Aug. 17 at Saratoga. Despite getting off to a subpar start, Concord Green rallied tenaciously in the stretch to prevail by three-quarters of a length for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. According to Brisnet statistics, McGaughey wins at a sharp 23% rate with last-out maiden winners, and 53% of those runners finish in the top three. Concord Green is a definite threat to finish in the trifecta this Saturday.
We’ll also consider the chances of #1 Noble Confessor (6-1), even though he’s yet to win a race. Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, Noble Confessor has competed exclusively on dirt so far. He debuted in a Saratoga sprint and employed pace-tracking tactics to finish third behind Chancer McPatrick, who returned to win the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes. Then, Noble Confessor stretched out to one mile and raced in midfield on his way to a distant fifth-place finish.
As a son of Quality Road out of a mare by Noble Mission, Noble Confessor has the pedigree to appreciate switching to turf. He recorded a half-mile workout on the Saratoga training track turf course on Sept. 13, getting the distance in :48.75, so it’s possible Pletcher saw enough grass potential from Noble Confessor to warrant stepping up in class for the Pilgrim. The fact five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. is retaining the mount adds to the appeal of Noble Confessor as a live midrange longshot.
Depending on the budget you’ve allocated for betting the Pilgrim, here are two wagering strategies to consider:
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$6 to win on #4 Zulu Kingdom
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, 11th race, $6 to win on 4
$2 exacta: 4 with 5,8 ($4)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, 11th race, $2 exacta 4 with 5,8
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$14 to win on #4 Zulu Kingdom
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, 11th race, $14 to win on 4
$6 exacta: 4 with 5,8 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, 11th race, $6 exacta 4 with 5,8
$1 trifecta: 4 with 5,8 with 1,5,8 ($4)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, 11th race, $1 trifecta 4 with 5,8 with 1,5,8
Good luck and enjoy the race!