The Breeders’ Cup World Championships is the ultimate handicapping puzzle for horseplayers, and it’s especially appealing to those who adhere to the maxim of “bet a little to win a lot.”
The 14-race slate of Breeders’ Cup races brings together great horses from all regions in the U.S. as well as from overseas, which means that year after year, top-class runners with full résumés go off at odds far higher than they would in any other setting.
Finding and playing longshots in the Breeders’ Cup can become even more lucrative if you are able to also select – and toss from your betting slips – several horses that are underlays; that is, ones that are receiving more support from bettors than they should and thus carrying lower odds (check out ABR’s primer on gambling terms for more info). Zigging while everyone else zags is the essence of astute betting in any environment, and in horse racing it can lead to astronomical payouts.
So, which morning-line favorites in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup are vulnerable to lose at short odds? Four candidates are listed below from the 41st renewal of the World Championships and the third time the event is held “where the turf meets the surf” – sensational Del Mar.
1. Lake Victoria (8-5, John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf): This filly enters the Breeders’ Cup checking every box that seemingly can be checked – she’s from the Coolmore colossus, trained by Aidan O’Brien with Ryan Moore in the saddle, and most importantly, she’s undefeated through four starts in England and Ireland, the last two being Group 1 stakes victories. However … her last three wins have come against a total of 16 opponents and she’ll probably be facing 13 in this race, she’s breaking from the rail, and she has not raced around one turn yet, much less two as all four of her wins have come on straight configurations. She’ll need to break well and not get crowded by several horses drawn near to her on the outside in order to not get shuffled too far back before the first turn. She also must contend with the speed of second morning-line choice Thought Process (5-2), a Del Mar-based filly who I expect will try to wire the field. There are several intriguing longshots worth considering in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, two of which – 20-1 shots Kilwin and May Day Ready – are discussed in Mike Curry’s Breeders’ Cup betting column. I actually think Lake Victoria’s stablemate Heaven’s Gate (12-1) stands a chance at posting the upset as well. I anticipate Lake Victoria will run very well in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, but there are too many variables at play here to accept 8-5 odds in the win pool.
2. New Century (5-2, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf): New Century won the bet365.com Summer Stakes at Woodbine on Sept. 14 in his first North American start, surging late to outfinish the Charlie Appleby-trained Al Qudra (4-1), who’s also entered in the Juvenile Turf. That race was held at a one-turn mile, and both were impressive (Al Qudra might actually end up as the post-time favorite in the BC Juvenile Turf). Still, as with the Juvenile Fillies Turf, this two-turn mile race should have a full field breaking from the gate, and there are too many other quality contenders present to back either one of these runners at their morning-line odds. Among the alternatives, Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore send out Henri Matisse (6-1), who has won two Group 2 stakes and also finished a close second a Group 1 and run well in all three starts on turf rated as good. Notably, Appleby’s other entrant, Group 2 stakes winner Aomori City (10-1), will be ridden by his first-call jockey William Buick, who was on Al Qudra in the Summer Stakes. Chad Brown-trained Zulu Kingdom, an Irish-bred ridgling who’s 3-for-3 so far with two wins at 1 1/16 miles, should be flying late under Flavien Prat and looks dangerous as well at 8-1 on the morning line.
3. City of Troy (5-2, Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic): Coolmore’s star 3-year-old is definitely the center of debate coming into Breeders’ Cup 2024, touting a 6-for-7 record highlighted by three consecutive open-length wins in Group 1 stakes a mile and a quarter or longer. Of course, they were all on turf, as have been all of his races, and on this “surface” question the dividing lines have been drawn. My take? Even though he’s a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, accepting 5-2 odds on a colt that’s never competed on dirt before against a full field of accomplished dirt runners is inadvisable to say the least. Next up on the odds board is Fierceness (3-1), who might end up the post-time favorite, and I have my doubts about his chances at a mile and a quarter despite his impressive win in the DraftKings Travers Stakes, which was aided by a trouble-free trip. That leaves a handful of contenders worth considering at odds approaching or exceeding double-digits. I wish Arthur’s Ride (15-1) did not draw an outside post position, but on the other hand he won the Whitney Stakes from a similar post in overpowering fashion – and if you like him, you’ve also got to consider the horse that defeated him next out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes, Highland Falls (20-1). That colt will exit post no. 2, just to the inside of City of Troy, and I expect jockey Luis Saez to be aggressive in establishing a dominant position from the break, potentially crowding out his European rival. Japan’s Forever Young (6-1) and Ushba Tesoro (12-1) also deserve attention in a fascinating betting race. I’ll be leaving City of Troy out of all three spots in the trifecta and using Fierceness only in third.
4. War Like Goddess (5-2, Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf): This one is tough because I, like many others, am a War Like Goddess fan and have been since she won her first stakes races back in spring 2021 during the early post-COVID days of returning to in-person attendance at the track. She’s faced all comers since then, winning two Grade 1 stakes against males and running one of her best races in this event back in fall 2021 at Del Mar when she finished third by a half-length. Still, War Like Goddess has only won one of her four starts this year at age 7 and, as good as she’s been through the years, she’s not enough of a “win machine” (12-for-22 lifetime) to support at these odds. Entrants from Godolphin/Appleby (Cinderella’s Dream at 4-1) and Coolmore/O’Brien (Content at 6-1) figure to be tough, and I’ll also be taking a long look at Canadian 2022 Horse of the Year Moira. That mare was a rallying third in last year’s Filly & Mare Turf at Santa Anita Park, and in her prep race for Saturday she had way, way too much ground to make up as the odds-on favorite in Woodbine’s E. P. Taylor Stakes and had to settle for second behind pacesetter Full Count Felicia (entered here at 12-1). I expect Flavien Prat to keep Moira much closer to the pace in the Filly & Mare Turf and she can spring the upset at 8-1 morning-line odds.